Efeitos do isolamento social sobre o setor de serviços do Brasil: uma análise a partir do modelo VARX
Abstract
This work aims to analyze the response of the Brazilian services sector to an exogenous shock caused by an increase in social isolation through the VARX model. The main results suggest that the shock affects the aggregate services sector and most of its subsectors in a transitory manner. Conversely, the industrial sector and the IBC-Br suffer the effect permanently. Among all the subsectors, Services provided to families is the one that presents the most interesting results, with a 100 p.p. reduction in the growth rate at the time of the shock, and later achieving a gain of 9.3 p.p. The Other services subsector is the one with the greatest reduction in terms of permanent losses.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Laudenor Morais Correia de Melo Assunção, Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro, Fábio Rodrigues de Moura
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