Impactos socioeconômicos de um desabastecimento de diesel na economia brasileira: uma análise de insumo produto
Abstract
Diesel is a non-renewable fuel, whose availability affects the efficiency and competitiveness of productive sectors. This article discusses the dependency on diesel for the Brazilian economy, specifically, it intends to estimate the potential impacts of an eventual shortage of this fuel. For this purpose, an input-output model integrated with linear programming procedures is used in order to simulate direct, indirect and induced effects on income and job creation. The results reveal expressive socioeconomic implications for short periods (10 days) of restricted availability and point to significant potential losses due to the characteristics of the productive structure, in particular related to the transport sector. The evidence obtained contributes to guide public energy planning policies and draws attention to the need to form strategic diesel stocks. The study presents a differentiated analysis providing an alternative methodological perspective on the subject.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Thiago de Moraes Moreira, Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro, Samia Mercado Alvarenga
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