Avaliação de políticas de combate à pobreza no Brasil: aplicação do método de Controle Sintético Generalizado para o Fecop no Ceará

Vitor Hugo Miro Couto Silva; Francisca Zilânia Mariano; Guaracyane Lima Campêlo; Natália Cecília de França; João Mário Santos de França; Marília Rodrigues Firmiano

Evaluation of policies to combat poverty in Brazil: application of the Generalized Synthetic Control method for Fecop in Ceará

Authors

Vitor Hugo Miro Couto Silva Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia Rural (PPGER), Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5392-8764
Francisca Zilânia Mariano Universidade Federal do Ceará, Sobral, CE, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1282-8812
Guaracyane Lima Campêlo Universidade Federal do Ceará, Sobral, CE, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1962-138X
Natália Cecília de França Centro de Análise de Dados e Avaliação de Políticas Públicas, Instituto de Pesquisa e Estratégia Econômica do Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1119-3026
João Mário Santos de França Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6805-808X
Marília Rodrigues Firmiano Instituto de Pesquisa e Estratégia Econômica do Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7112-2855

Abstract

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of the creation of the State Fund to Combat Poverty (FECOP) in 2003 on poverty indicators in Ceará. The empirical application is distinguished by the use of the Generalized Synthetic Control method recently developed by Xu (2017). With state-level data for the period 1981 to 2014, the results indicate a statistically significant impact of FECOP on poverty and extreme poverty reduction in Ceará starting in 2008. Additionally, a comparative analysis of states composing the synthetic control for Ceará was carried out, regarding the number and total value of benefits of the Program Bolsa Família. The purpose is to present evidence that the effects found are not being affected by federal program transfers.

Keywords: Generalized Synthetic Control, Poverty, State Fund to Combat Poverty.

JEL Codes: C13, C21, I32

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Published

2021-07-19

How to Cite

SILVA, V. H. M. C.; MARIANO, F. Z.; CAMPÊLO, G. L.; FRANÇA, N. C. de; FRANÇA, J. M. S. de; FIRMIANO, M. R. Evaluation of policies to combat poverty in Brazil: application of the Generalized Synthetic Control method for Fecop in Ceará. Nova Economia, [S. l.], v. 31, n. 1, p. 273–302, 2021. Disponível em: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/5449. Acesso em: 21 nov. 2024.

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Issue

Vol. 31 No. 1 (2021): Revista Nova Economia

Section

Regular Issue

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