Pandemic and the city: urban and economic shifts in Brazil through the lens of the ARDL model

Abstract

This article analyzes the impacts of the Covid-19
pandemic on major Brazilian cities from an urban perspective, focusing on the urban land market as a barometer of economic and social dynamics. It explores how social distancing measures and the subsequent mass vaccination campaign influenced land prices. Key factors examined include the widespread adoption of remote work and the expansion of e-commerce, both intensified by the pandemic. The analysis uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model applied to a panel dataset of seven Brazilian cities, with urban land prices as the dependent variable. Explanatory variables include indicators of vaccination, trade,
economic activity, and formal employment. The
results highlight the critical role of vaccination
in the cities’ economic recovery and emphasize the resilience of urban centers in both the short and long term. The study contributes to understanding how health crises reshape urban economies through shifts in labor, consumption, and spatial dynamics.