Crescimento e mudança demográfica: uma aplicação do modelo de Goodwin para países da OCDE (1960-2010)

Daniel Nogueira Silva; Henrique Morrone

Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)

Authors

Daniel Nogueira Silva Instituto de Estudos em Desenvolvimento Agrário e Regional, Universidade Federal do Sul e Sudeste do Pará, Marabá, PA, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8379-4672
Henrique Morrone Departamento de Economia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9579-8489

Abstract

Abstract

The objective of this article is to evaluate the empirical adherence of the Goodwin Model (1967), when considering the inclusion in this model of a social security system characterized by a homogeneous rate of exogenously determined social security tax and adjustable individual pension levels for a determinant number of retirees. The empirical analysis is applied to a set of economies developed in the period from 1960 to 2010. Based on the data and on the econometric methodology used, the results found point to a better empirical adjustment of the Goodwin model (1967), which indicates that the Population aging can affect economic cycles through the social security system.

Keywords: Goodwin's model, populations ageing, OECD.

JEL Codes: O47, J26, O15.

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Published

2021-07-19

How to Cite

SILVA, D. N.; MORRONE, H. Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010). Nova Economia, [S. l.], v. 31, n. 1, p. 39–66, 2021. Disponível em: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6054. Acesso em: 30 jun. 2024.

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Issue

Vol. 31 No. 1 (2021): Revista Nova Economia

Section

Regular Issue

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