An analysis of the services inflation persistence puzzle in Brazil

Authors

Abstract

This article analyzes the so-called Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil, for the period ranging from August 1999 to February 2017. As a benchmark, we also analyze the Brazilian Consumer Inflation (IPCA), non-durable, semi-durable and durable goods, as well as some items disaggregated from the basket of services. Structural break tests and ARFIMA models are used. Results show that, initially, services inflation persistence is higher than that found in goods inflation and IPCA. However, after structural breaks are accounted for, services inflation seems to be anti-persistent and stationary, indicating the existence of the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil. The same behavior applies to the main components of the service basket.

Keywords services inflation; inflation persistence; ARFIMA models

Author Biography

Cleomar Gomes da Silva, Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brasil.

Doutor em Economia pela Fundação Getulio Vargas - Escola de Economia de São Paulo (FGV-EESP) com Doutorado Sanduíche na New York University (2006). Possui Mestrado em Economia pela Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (2003), Graduação em Ciências Econômicas pela Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (2001) e Graduação de 2 anos em Computer Information Systems pelo Quinsigamond Community College (1994) EUA. Atuou como Economista Sênior da FIESP e como Professor da Fundação Getulio Vargas de São Paulo (FGV-SP) e do Insper-SP. Foi Assessor Econômico e Coordenador-Geral de Análise Macroeconômica da Secretaria de Política Econômica do Ministério da Fazenda. Atualmente, é Professor do Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia. Tem experiência na área de Economia, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: macroeconomia, política monetária, conjuntura econômica, desemprego, econometria de séries temporais.

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Published

2019-10-11

How to Cite

BORGES, G. M.; SILVA, C. G. da. An analysis of the services inflation persistence puzzle in Brazil. Nova Economia, [S. l.], v. 29, n. 2, p. 541–563, 2019. Disponível em: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/3633. Acesso em: 30 jun. 2024.

Issue

Vol. 29 No. 2 (2019): v. 29 n. 2 (2019)

Section

Regular Issue

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