MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF MERGER AND ACQUISITION WAVES IN EMERGING MARKETS (BRICS)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22561/cvr.v36i3.8833Keywords:
Mergers and Acquisitions Waves, Markov-Switching, Macroeconomic Variables, Multivariate AnalysisAbstract
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are characterized by waves that alternate between prolonged periods of relative stability and short phases marked by sharp increases in transaction volume, often driven by the cyclical dynamics of capital markets and overall economic conditions. This study aims to identify and analyze how macroeconomic and market variables relate to the formation of M&A wave patterns in the context of BRICS member countries. Quarterly data covering the period from 2004-Q2 to 2021-Q3 are analyzed using a Markov-Switching model, with exchange rates, lending interest rates, stock market indices, and gross domestic product included as explanatory variables The sample comprises 63,943 M&A transactions across the five BRICS countries. The results indicate that M&A activity exhibits a wave-like pattern and that macroeconomic variables explain these dynamics when the analysis is conducted at the country level, thereby confirming the validity and effectiveness of the Markov-Switching model, as well as the adequacy of the proxies used to capture wave dynamics. However, this finding does not hold when M&A activity is examined in an aggregated sectoral form. Moreover, in the high-activity regime, the variance of the series is higher, and during the COVID-19 pandemic, aggregate M&A activity across the BRICS countries reached a minimum level not observed since 2005. This study contributes to the literature by addressing the relative scarcity of research on M&A waves through the adoption of an innovative methodological approach (Markov-Switching) and a broader analytical focus on emerging BRICS economies.
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