DETERMINANTES MACROECONÔMICOS DE ONDAS DE FUSÕES E AQUISIÇÕES EM MERCADOS EMERGENTES (BRICS)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22561/cvr.v36i3.8833Palavras-chave:
Markov-Switching, Análise Multivariada, Ondas de Fusões e Aquisições, Variáveis MacroeconômicasResumo
A atividade de fusões e aquisições (F&As) é caracterizada pela ocorrência em ondas que alternam entre longos períodos de normalidade e curtos momentos de abrupta elevação da quantidade de operações, ocasionados muitas vezes pela ciclicidade do mercado de capitais e pelo desempenho da economia. Este estudo visa identificar e analisar como as variáveis macroeconômicas e de mercado se relacionam com o padrão de ondas de F&As no contexto de países membros do BRICS. Foram utilizados dados trimestrais correspondentes ao período de 2004-2T até 2021-3T, em um modelo Markov-Switching que teve como variáveis explicativas câmbio, taxa de juros de empréstimos, índice do mercado de ações e produto interno bruto. A amostra analisada foi composta de 63.943 processos de F&As dos cinco países do BRICS. Constatou-se que as F&As analisadas apresentaram padrão de ondas e que as variáveis macroeconômicas conseguem explicá-las, quando se considera a análise por país, confirmando, assim, a validade e eficácia do modelo Markov-Switching, bem como das proxies utilizadas na previsão de ondas dessa atividade. No entanto, esse resultado não foi observado para a análise das F&As agregadas setorialmente. Ademais, no estado de alta, a variância da série é maior e, durante a pandemia de COVID-19, a quantidade de F&As no agregado dos BRICS atingiu um patamar mínimo que não era observado desde 2005. Este estudo contribui para preencher parte da lacuna na literatura no que se refere à escassez de pesquisas sobre o tema (F&As), ao inovar na abordagem metodológica (Markorv-Switching), além de adotar um contexto ampliado de análise (BRICS).
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