Não linearidades na relação entre a dívida pública e o crescimento econômico: uma aplicação ao caso brasileiro

Benito Salomão; Cleomar Gomes da Silva

Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case

Authors

Benito Salomão Instituto de Economia e Relações Internacionais (IERI), Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia, MG, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7462-9763
Cleomar Gomes da Silva Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia, MG, Brasil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1543-9097

Abstract

This article assesses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil between 2002Q4 and 2020Q4. The Autoregressive Threshold estimations suggest a tipping point for the country’s Gross Debt to GDP ratio of 84% of GDP, and for the Net Debt to GDP ratio of 59% of GDP, beyond which public indebtedness starts to put negative pressure on GDP growth. Non-linear effects of the debt to GDP ratio on output are also estimated, via Markov Switching Regime, for different levels of the Debt/GDP ratio. The results indicate that the transition from a low to a high debt to GDP ratio regime causes a reduction in the Brazilian GDP growth rate.

Keywords: Threshold Autoregressive, Markov Switching Regime, public debt, GDP growth.

EL: E62, E63, H63

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Published

2023-07-25

How to Cite

SALOMÃO, B.; SILVA, C. G. da. Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case. Nova Economia, [S. l.], v. 33, n. 1, p. 153–180, 2023. Disponível em: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/7461. Acesso em: 25 feb. 2026.

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Issue

Vol. 33 No. 1 (2023): Revista Nova Economia

Section

Regular Issue

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