O modelo de liberalização financeira dos anos 1990: ‘restatement’ ou auto-crítica?

Abstract

The paper examines the revisions suffered by the financial liberalization model during the 80 and the 90 decades. These revisions was forced by two set of factors: the unfavorable results of some econometric tests of the Shaw-McKinnon model
and the experiences of several developed (DC) and developing (LDC) countries with the liberalization policy. In the econometric field, the tests have revailled a weak explaining role of the two key-variables of the model: the real interest rate and the saving rate. As for DC and LDC experiences, the main challenge to the original Shaw-McKinnon model was the banking and currency crises that, in most cases, have followed the liberalization policy. Facing this limitations, the “modern version” of the liberalization model has embodied several (keynesian) critiques to Shaw-McKinnon’s financial theory and policy and has been forced to allow for the need of some degree of government intervention in the free choice of financial market concerning its portfolio composition. Farther, the new model make a real self-critique, admitting that, under certain conditions, some degree of financial repression could be necessary, and even beneficial to financial development.