Currency crisis and external fragility: a Minskyan interpretation applied to the Brazilian economy between 1999 and 2013

Authors

  • Victor Hugo Rocha Sarto Universidade Estadual Paulista 'Júlio de Mesquita Filho' - UNESP - Campus de Araraquara
  • Luciana Togeiro de Almeida Universidade Estadual Paulista 'Júlio de Mesquita Filho' - UNESP - Campus de Araraquara

Keywords:

Minsky, crises cambiais, fragilidade externa, economia brasileira.

Abstract

This work has two goals. The first one is to develop an interpretation for open economies founded on Minsky’s financial fragility hypothesis about the process of a currency crisis and its determinants. The deterioration of an economy’s external financial structure is identified as the reason for the increase of its crisis susceptibility. With this approach, we create external fragility indexes intending to measure an economy’s crisis susceptibility. Our second objective is to evaluate the Brazilian external fragility between 1999 and 2013 using the index and the interpretation previously developed. The results suggest that Brazilian’s external fragility suffered a gradual and significant decrease and tends to follow stable trend in the coming years.

Author Biographies

Victor Hugo Rocha Sarto, Universidade Estadual Paulista 'Júlio de Mesquita Filho' - UNESP - Campus de Araraquara

Mestre em Economia (2014) pela Faculdade de Ciências e Letras da Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, campus de Araraquara, onde também atua como membro do Instituto de Estudos Econômicos e Internacionais (IEEI). Graduado em Relações Internacionais pela Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (2011), campus de Franca. Possui interesse nas áreas de Economia Internacional e Economia Brasileira.

Luciana Togeiro de Almeida, Universidade Estadual Paulista 'Júlio de Mesquita Filho' - UNESP - Campus de Araraquara

Professora do Departamento de Economia da Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), onde também atua como membro do Instituto de Estudos Econômicos e Internacionais (IEEI). Foi Visiting Scholar no Global Development and Environment Institute da Tufts University. Possui graduação, mestrado e doutorado em Economia pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP).Tem experiência na área de Economia Internacional e Economia do Meio Ambiente, com foco em Comércio Internacional e Desenvolvimento Sustentável. Foi Presidente e atualmente é membro da Diretoria da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia Ecológica (ECOECO)/seção regional da International Society for Ecological Economics (ISEE)

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Published

2016-12-30

How to Cite

ROCHA SARTO, V. H.; TOGEIRO DE ALMEIDA, L. Currency crisis and external fragility: a Minskyan interpretation applied to the Brazilian economy between 1999 and 2013. Nova Economia, [S. l.], v. 25, n. Esp, 2016. Disponível em: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/2738. Acesso em: 23 dec. 2024.

Issue

Vol. 25 (2015): Número Especial

Section

Regular Issue

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