Proposta de Utilização de Beta-Indicador como Modelo Determinístico para Gestão de Custos Estimados nas Pequenas e Médias Empresas

Abstract

   This work proposes a deterministic model applied to the control of costs with base in Beta-indicators. The model of ß-indicators facilitates the administration of costs establishing alert, especially in the cases in that the costs are estimated by means of values: optimist (a), more-probable (m) and pessimist (b). That is to say: given the values a, m and b of estimated costs the model of ß-indicators attributes a distribution probabilística of the type ß. The proposed model is applicable to the administration of costs and it can be applied in several ways: i) to establish levels of alert for estimated costs; and ii) to determine the probability of certain cost to be reached or surpassed. Small alterations in the process of verification of costs facilitate to use the Beta-indicators appropriately, not only in the definition of the modal cost (the most probable cost) but also of level of alert in the schedule of costs, getting the attention for the Production when such level is potentially being overcome. The analysis of the accuracy of the model was made by simulation and tests for to check the degree of adherence of the values observed to the expected values. The research is enabled the small and medium companies by being of a proposition on a software (Excel), relatively, common and accessível for PME’s demonstrating to be viable economic and technologically to this managerial category.