Abstract
Objective: To analyze the effect of the characteristics of the insured on the generation of the first healthcare cost of a health plan. Method: The probabilities and risks of the insured generating the first assistance cost to the plan are estimated by the Cox Model, in the absence and presence of competitive risks, and from a sample of 160,572 insured (referring to the competencies from 2013 to 2015). Theoretical basis: the time until the generation of the referred cost is a continuous random variable that may present incomplete information (censorship), indicating the use of survival analysis for its treatment. Results: In the absence of competitive risks, the male gender and daily procedures and fees are less likely to generate costs; in the presence, males are at greater risk of generating costs from daily rates and fees, materials and medicines and others. Conclusions: the characteristics of the insured explain the time until the generation of the assistance cost in the absence and presence of competitive risks, the method used is appropriate and can be replicated with the various operators to estimate the probabilities and risks related to the assistance costs.