Does a University Scholarship Ensure Student Persistence in Higher Education? A Longitudinal Analysis of the AVANCE Program
Abstract
The study evaluates the causal impact of the AVANCE University Scholarship Program, a public policy initiative by the Government of Ceará aimed at expanding access to and persistence in higher education among low-income students. A Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), based on the ENEM score cutoff, is used to estimate the program’s effect on persistence during the first two years of study. The analysis combines administrative records from SEDUC, ENEM, and the Higher Education Census (INEP) to track public high school graduates from 2015 and 2016 who enrolled in 2017. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant effect on persistence in 2018 and 2019, especially for families with monthly income below R$ 788. The effects are more evident in the short term, suggesting the need for complementary policies to ensure student persistence beyond the first year.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Francisca Zilania Mariano, Celina Santos de Oliveira, João Mário Santos de França, Fabricio Carneiro Linhares
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