A study of the validity of the Long-Term Orientation scale 1 Estudo da validade da escala de mensuração da Orientação a Longo Prazo

A partir de estudos encontrados na literatura acerca da eficácia do modelo das dimensões culturais de Hofstede (1980), foi realizado um estudo empírico para verificar se o pressuposto de que os valores culturais mudam ao mesmo tempo e na mesma direção, conforme postula o autor. A presente pesquisa foi realizada junto a estudantes universitários em sete países (Brasil, Colômbia, Índia, Portugal, Romênia, Espanha e Turquia), utilizando uma amostragem do tipo “bola de neve”, obtendo-se 1.452 respostas válidas. A participação foi razoavelmente uniforme em relação à distribuição por gênero, perfil etário e escolaridade. Foram aplicados procedimentos recomendados para validação da escala de orientação de longo prazo (Bearden et al., 2006). A análise revela que ocorreram mudanças culturais nas coortes geracionais na comparação frente ao estudo original, pois os escores da dimensão de orientação de longo prazo mudaram de forma significativa. Desta forma, coloca-se por terra o pressuposto das mudanças na mesma direção, preconizados por Hofstede. Reforça-se, desta maneira, a necessidade de atualizar os conceitos teóricos a fim de preservar a relevância acadêmica e gerencial da cultura mundial e de sua natureza mutável. Com isso, pretende-se assegurar uma visão mais acurada da perspectiva cultural, de maneira a equipar os alunos e os gestores com o melhor conjunto de informações possíveis para atuar nos mercados internacionais.


INTRODUCTION
When starting to discuss aspects of culture, it is relevant to present their underlying concepts. Within a broader perspective, it is considered that culture is related to patterns of development reflected in the systems of beliefs, knowledge, ideologies and values, which are anchored in society's daily rituals.
In turn, the organizational culture emanates from corporate structure and policies (which, despite the difficulty, can be modified), and from corporate culture -which is more difficult to transform, even though it is an important element of business strategy. In this context, organizational the 100 most cited authors, whose works are present in textbooks and have been published in several languages.
The dimensions proposed by Hofstede are widely used to present important questions of organizational culture. Authors such as Venaik and Brewer (2010), Fitzpatrick (2017), Maseland and Van Hoorn (2015) and Minkov (2017) are unanimous in recognizing his contribution, as it leads us to an understanding of cultural differences in the organizational context (Nelson and Gopalan, 2003).
Nevertheless, recent studies have started to make considerations about the concepts and their assumptions (McSweeney, 2002;Sivakumar and Nakata, 2001;Yeh and Lawrence, 1995). For example, an initial criticism concerns the difficulty of this theory in capturing dynamic aspects of organizational culture (Kirkman et al., 2006;Beugelsdijk and Welzel, 2018).
In this regard, Hofstede (2001, p. 34-36) considers that such questions are incorporated into the theoretical concept, when stating that the organizational culture is stable over time; for the author, there would be no reason why such changes cannot be readily identified.
On the other hand, after that study, several events arose that undoubtedly produced important changes in the social and cultural fabric.
Among others, the end of the Soviet bloc is cited, which dramatically altered the macroenvironment of contemporary times. In addition, new and important centers of technological, geopolitical influence, military power and culture emerged, which produced changes on the world stage.
The world prospered, and in the wake of these facts, the population's access to goods and services was facilitated -services and goods which are often produced in other countries, through communication technology, the Internet, the rapid dissemination of information, the computers and smartphones. It is considered that these issues had enormous relevance in the presentation of concepts and ideas, as well as in the dissemination of products and services.
According to Wang (2006), Lu et al. (2010) and Edwards (1996), this macroenvironment affects cultural value systems. Based on these considerations, Sivakumar and Nakata (2001) criticize Hofstede's model, considering that it does not objectively confirm the social transformations of contemporary society.
In the midst of this discussion, the Chinese Culture Connection report (1987) is credited with the first contribution aimed at investigating these questions, in the wake of the initial development of the Hofstede model (1980). Add to this question the prominence received by the Hofstede model and its wide dissemination (both in academic research and in the business environment), which end up expanding the need to redesign its precepts.
Thus, a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of this model in face of these changes is justified. The present work proposes a revision of the construct of long-term orientation, through an empirical research in Brazil, Colombia, India, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Turkey, in order to verify if the order of these countries remains valid .

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS
The concept of cultural dimensions is, by far, one of the most studied models in academia and is supported by a wide use in the world of international business, for presenting a mechanism for understanding cultural differences (Tang and Koveos, 2008;Kirkman, Lowe and Gibson, 2006;Osland and Bird, 2000;Peterson and Sondergaard, 2011). It was developed from data collected at IBM from 1967 to 1973, using questionnaires that were applied to employees of the company's subsidiaries, located in 72 countries. The aim of the study was to characterize attitudes in the workplace (Hofstede, 1980). The theory has a four-dimensional structure: (1) power distance, (2) uncertainty avoidance, (3) individualism / collectivism and (4) masculinity / femininity. The dimensions present two possible extremes, in their operationalization and data collection (Hofstede, 1980;1998).
In a subsequent theoretical evolution, a fifth dimension was proposedwhich is the subject of this article. Originally, this new dimension was called "Confucian dynamism", in the wake of the work of a team of Asian researchers (Bond, 1987) who sought to minimize the Western cultural bias, which was supposed to be present in the original study. This dimension was later added to this theoretical framework, receiving the name "long or short term orientation" (Hofstede, Hofstede and Minkov, 1991).
Long-term orientation (henceforth, LTO) is defined as the intensity with which people's values are turned to the future, postponing "immediate gratification" in exchange for more lasting or long-term goals. In other words, the long-term orientation prioritizes planning, the persistence of purposes and the construction of financial reserves to face future needs, while leaving aside traditions and customs, thus enabling plans for the future. In other words, long-term orientation leads people to save in order to build reserves, in order to face future contingencies, or even to pursue longterm goals -such as, for example, investing in education or personal development (Hofstede and Hofstede, 2001). In fact, it is an evolution of the original LTO scale, which, however, uses assumptions based on the perspectives and thoughts of the Western world.
Its use is justified on the grounds that the WVS would be more widely applicable to different countries. In view of this theory evolution, the new LTO scale was developed to incorporate aspects considered relevant. The scale is measured with values between 0 and 100 and -when it was first executed -the top four positions of the 93 countries surveyed were occupied by South Korea (100), Taiwan (93), Japan (88) and China (87). Hofstede and Hofstede (2001) postulate that culture is stable and that its values are viscerally integrated with a country's population. Supported by this concept, the authors propose that these legacies form the basis of family structure, the legal system, educational system and the political environment. In this way, the idea that values are passed on from generation to generation is reinforced; in addition, this theoretical corpus would be endowed with self-sustainability and continued analysis. It is also assumed that values and beliefs have shared historical origins -a fact that favors the notion of stability in the theoretical model.
In an aspect focused on the organizational culture perspective, the Hofstede model was widely used to develop business plans (Gill, 2017;Markman, 2018;Mody, 2017;Jain, 2020). There are clear advantages in applying the concepts of this model: initially, it is noted that it offers descriptions that are easily understood about the organizational culture, with relevant insights regarding the possible interpretations of its particularities, as well as the effective forms of interaction.
On the other hand, it is important to note that the guidelines pointed out by the original model appear to suffer wear and tear of efficiency over time. No major efforts were devoted to updating the model by Hofstede et al. (2010). As its focus rests on applicability, the model does not aim to build projective models adjusted to social, economic and cultural transformations.
To illustrate this point, the generations of Baby Boomers and Generation X are mentioned, which were succeeded by the generations Y and Z (or "centennials"). There is no doubt that the cohorts have distinct belief systems and values -which would immediately justify an analysis of cultural dimensions under different cuts -for example, segregating the analyzed age groups or generations.
In addition, it is necessary to consider its determinants in the aspects of politics, society, demography and economy. Certainly, changes in some countries will be more intense than in others. Thus, it is expected to find variations in a populations' perception regarding what is important in life, as well as the meanings attributed by them and their personal values (Parry and Urwin, 2011;Schuman and Scott, 1989).
Finally, it is relevant to note that the phenomenon of globalization was accompanied by a strong development of international trade, which led countries to be exposed to different systems of ideas and values. By the way, there is a vast literature focused on the modernization of society and its effects on cultural value systems (Inglehart, 1997;Inglehart and Baker, 2000;Pollay et al., 1990).
As an example, the transition from an industrial to a post-industrial society brought basic changes in people's lives, which are reflected in new worldviews (Inglehart and Baker, 2000). In this context, logical, rational, compartmentalized, hierarchical forms of organization, as well as general attitudes towards authority, give way to the post-industrial economy, which is dominated by services, giving greater importance to communication and information; in view of this, values such as self-expression and autonomy are highly highlighted (Inglehart, 1997). Transposing this illustrative example to Hofstede's conceptual framework, it is expected that the model of cultural dimensions will present higher scores in the individualism dimension, as well as lower scores in power distance.
It is worth mentioning that economic prosperity in developed countries will imply that individuals assume that survival and material security are guaranteed elements, considered to be already achieved. In this sense, when considering that people tend to attribute value to scarce objects, there will be a tendency to value attitudes in relation to quality of life, individual freedom and aesthetics, to the detriment of financial and physical security (Inglehart, 1997;Inglehart and Baker, 2000;Leung, 2008).
In view of this purpose, sociologists defined the concept of "generational impression" to denote the phenomenon through which the shared memory of significant and particular events will lead a specific generation to demonstrate a predisposition to certain forms of thoughts and experiences, which will define a set of attitudes, preferences and behaviors (Parry and Urwin, 2011;Schuman and Scott, 1989).
In this context, generations that have been deprived -or even those that have little access to resources that were scarce -will value survival through economic determinism, rationality, materialism, conformity and respect for authority (Inglehart, 1997 ). On the other hand, generations that have received material comfort, ample access to resources and modern amenities will privilege postmodernist values, such as egalitarianism, individualism, interpersonal trust, tolerance to diversity and selftranscendence (Inglehart, 1997). on the other hand, he points out that the differences will be more intense when comparing cultural values by generational cohorts. In particular, the young Chinese American population was found to have a short-term orientation when compared to the older generation. As personal experiences change from generation to generation, the fact that people have been exposed to social changes, given the greater capacity to acquire material and consumer goods, may lead groups to present different values.
Other studies provide evidence that long or short-term orientation is not a stable feature. For example, the work by Jiang et al. (2010) showed that foreign direct investment in China produced changes in the population's culture, affecting their orientation, behavior and sense of collectivism. In another study, Tang and Koveos (2008) suggested that the long-term orientation initially decreases, but later increases, due to the growth of national wealth; the authors measured this growth through GDP per capita.
In view of these questions, it can be stated that countries do not develop at the same pace or in the same areas of activity (as, for example, in the economy or in politics). Therefore, it is to be expected that changes in nations' value systems will also be distinct. In this regard, the example of East Asia is cited: China's economy has developed at an accelerated pace in recent years (IMF, 2020), while in India, Thailand and Vietnam there has been growth at a less accelerated pace; the Japanese economy, on the other hand, does not grow at expressive rates, and Russia, after several years of growth of 10% of GDP, experienced a recession in the period from 2015 to 2017 (since then, it has been growing at rates of 3% per year).
In clear opposition to Hofstede's (2001) notion that countries in certain regions will tend to show changes in values in the same direction, it is concluded that it is plausible to expect that countries' cultural values will change in different directions and intensities.
As a rule, the company's long-term orientation has a positive effect on innovation, as managers will tend to accept long-term risk. In addition, this stance encourages innovation processes (Zheng, Shen, Zhong and Lu, 2020), as long-term orientation encourages the breadth, speed and creativity of strategic decision-making processes (Lin, Shi, Prescott and Yang, 2019).
Celikkol, Kitapci and Doven (2019) corroborate this understanding by postulating that long-term orientation encourages entrepreneurship and economic progress. In the same vein, Gupta, Veliyath and George (2018) show that this orientation is associated with the processes of going public.
Regarding risk acceptance, the work of Yamen, Al Qudah, Badawi and Bani-Mustafa (2019) shows that short-term orientation is correlated with a higher incidence of financial crimes.
In view of this multiplicity of long-term orientation's effects, it is considered that it plays an extremely relevant role in the structure of business environments. Therefore, the precise assessment of culture is highly relevant both academically and managerially, as it promotes an environment in which good practices are used.
In this line, this article investigates the changes in the organizational culture's values, which arose from the macroenvironment's transformations.
A counter position is made here to the assumption that values will change at the same time and in the same direction, as advocated by Hofstede (2001). For this purpose, an empirical test of two hypotheses is carried out (noting, in passing, that proving one of these hypotheses will lead us to increase our confidence regarding the effects of the other hypothesis): H1a: There is a significant difference in terms of long-term orientation between the generations of the surveyed countries.
H1b: There is a change in the relative positions in the ranking of LTO values of the analyzed countries, in comparison with the data from the WVS survey. In the initial part of the questionnaire, information of a socioeconomic nature was requested, such as age, education and income. In the second part, information was collected on the level of attributed importance, by means of statements related to future perspectives and intention to invest thinking about tomorrow, using a 5-point Likert-type interval scale of agreement (1 = totally disagree, and 5 = strongly agree). varying from 24 to 30 years old, and they present a high level of education. Table 2 provides a summary of the study participants' profile. In this line, the authors' scale is replicated for this research. In the original work, it was obtained factorial loads that emerged from the review of each item's content, revealing two subdimensions: "tradition" and "planning".

Sampling procedures
The items in the "planning" sub-dimension are: 1. I work hard to succeed in the future 2. I don't mind giving up on the fun today to succeed in the future 3. persistence is important to me

I plan long term
The items of the "tradition" sub-dimension are: The data's internal consistency is tested with Cronbach's alpha (an instrument widely used to measure the internal reliability of psychometric instruments), followed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) to test the hypotheses presented here

Validation of the measurement scale
The frequency distribution reveals that the item's data show asymmetry, as few people responded that they totally disagree with the questions. There is little data missing; notably, only 1% of the answers, and mainly in the item corresponding to the respondent's income information. In line with Graham's recommendations (2009), it is not necessary to employ data imputation strategies.
The correlations between variables belonging to the same subdimension were, in general, much higher than the cross correlations between variables that belong to the other sub-dimension. Furthermore, the correlations are significant.
Following the recommendations of Anderson and Gerbing (1988) and Bearden et al. (2006), the analysis of the LTO measurement scale's main components is performed, which corroborates the two-dimensionality of the measurement scale. The factorial loads and the scree plot reveal that the planning factor captures 51.0% of the total variation; in the tradition subdimension, the factor explains 54.7% of the total variation, and the cumulative proportion of the joint variation is 53.9%.
Then, in accordance with the recommended procedures in the literature, factor analysis is performed using the main axis factoring method and promax oblique rotation, which results in acceptable factorial loads, with a correlation between the planning and tradition subdimensions.  -The discriminant validity has been confirmed; in relation to convergent validity, an acceptable composite reliability was found.

Hypothesis Testing
No uniform and general support for H1a is found, as it is observed in Brazil, Spain, Romania and Turkey. However, no empirical support is found to show significant differences for Colombia, India and Portugal.
Thus, as expected, respondents from the "older generation" -35 years old or older -are more long-term oriented than the "younger generations" in the following countries:  As for the H1b hypothesis, the countries' LTO score was compared. Table 4 shows that Colombia is more long term oriented (     That said, it is observed that the countries' order has been completely changed: no country has maintained the original order presented by Hofstede (2010).

DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
Cultural studies have broad ramifications, which can be applied to different disciplines and fields of knowledge. In business literature, they focus mainly on form and effects in face of organizational behavior (Naeem and Khurram, 2019). Several studies have focused on aspects of cultural values (Díez-Esteban, Farinha and García-Gómez, 2019). However, some uncertainty persists regarding the use of its conceptual framework.
In this article, we seek to analyze: (1)  Regarding the first question, the results indicate that some countries have undergone major changes, while others have not. As for the second question, of the surveyed countries, no one maintained their position in the general order. This data is particularly important, as it contradicts an important assumption of the cultural dimensions system's theoretical framework, in which a relative positioning of nations is postulated (Hofstede, 1991, p. 46;Piotti, 2012).
In this sense, the ordering of relative positions undergoes significant changes. It is concluded, from this result, that the LTO instrument -which is characterized by providing a value system, applied in order to know and to be able to operate in that particular nation -will lose part of its effectiveness and usefulness. This result has important implications for the activities of researchers and professors in the field of Administration, International Relations and International Marketing, as well as practitioners in the area of International Business, who make wide and unrestricted use of Hofstede's very relevant contributions and tools.
From the "real world" point of view, the conclusions of this study are important for business professionals, who often use Hofstede's theoretical framework in their plans to enter international markets, as the environment is often not known (Harrison , 2015;Serafeim et al., 2017;Gill, 2017). To enter these markets, it is essential to know the culture, the business environment and the possible implications for business strategy (Hofstede, 1994, Lewin andKim, 2004).
In this line, international managers must deeply understand social, economic and cultural differences (Ghemawat, 2007). Certainly, companies can use intuition or their own knowledge, as well as "business gurus" (Namaki, 2012), who -together with business publications and newspapers -can offer inputs to help the company in the internationalization processes (Gill, 2017;Markman, 2018;Bohl, 2019;Grant, 2019).
In any case, Hofstede's model has become a de facto standard and a mandatory reference to works regarding cultural differences (Triandis, 2004). According to Trompenaars (1993), the Hofstede model deserves recognition for "opening the eyes" of company managers to the importance of the cross-cultural management concept. In this sense, the Hofstede model presents a relevant mark, and is widely used in understanding cultural differences.
Culture affects perceptions and shapes the company's responses to the environment (Schneider and De Meyer, 1991). In addition, culture influences individual behavior in the macro environment (Andrews, 2001;Matten and Moon, 2008). Therefore, if the company uses conceptual models that have lost effectiveness, decision making may be impairedpossibly, reaching the point where it would be better not to use any information a priori, as there will always be the possibility of misunderstandings and false prejudices, which are often unintentional. Thus, there is an evident need to better investigate cultural transformations, as well as the validity of prevalent theories.
Within an instructional perspective, the results presented here serve as an important reminder that we, teachers and researchers, must always pay attention to the fact that the concepts we transmit must be reasonably accurate. In this sense, the Hofstede model that we teach allows a more effective and productive interaction with other cultures. Nevertheless, indications are found leading us to understand that the information we are routinely transmitting to students is probably inaccurate. Such fact can lead to the confusion that emanates from the attempt to apply in the real world the concepts that are taught in the classroom.
The results are relevant from the teacher's point of view, as many students accept the teachings as accomplished facts. However, in relation to culture, that does not seem to be the case. Many students will develop international business; the instructors would like to provide a complete world view, but the transmission of concepts and values -measured a long time ago -is no favor, so a clearer understanding of culture in today's world is of great academic and managerial relevance, as well as an understanding of its changing nature in order to improve the accuracy of these world perspectives. As educators, we have a responsibility to equip students with the best possible set of information.
An implication of the results in relation to cultural research is cited here.
As mentioned earlier, the researchers who criticize the Hofstede model focus mainly on the methodological issues of that study (Yeh and Lawrence, 1995;Tang and Koveos, 2008;Sivakumar and Nakata, 2001;Jones, 2007), but not on the presented results. On the other hand, this article shows that -regardless of whether the original dimensional scores are correct or not -some of the effectiveness of the measurement scale appears to have been lost. Even so, it is recognized that the model remains one of the most used methods, and that it is extremely useful to understand the cultural aspects of the organization.
Being or not in the position of defenders of this theoretical framework, it is up to the academic community, through research aimed at culture, to ensure the accuracy of what is put as a fact (that is, which is not discussed).
In view of the multifaceted aspects of human behavior, it is considered possible that cultural traits may change over time.
In retrospect, some changes seem quite obvious: the manifestations of the LBGTQ segment of society; the decrease in birth rates in developed countries; and the increase in consumer indebtedness in developing countries clearly demonstrate the transformations in social and cultural values.
It is proposed that this discussion is not to be aimed at the authors of the various theoretical currents, but rather that it be focused on possible ways of accurately evaluating cultural traits and recent developments. Another aspect of future work would be related to the refinement of the scale from Bearden et al. (2006), aiming at creating an adequate instrument to effectively measure long-term orientation. In the same vein, the study of the LTO / STO scale in conjunction with the other dimensions of the original Hofstede scale is suggested as a future referral, in order to investigate whether its items are not reflected in these other dimensions.
In terms of research limitations, the collection of data with sampling using the snowball technique is mentioned, since the respondents are mainly university students or recent graduates. In this sense, it is considered that the present research shares a similar limitation to Hofstede's work, since the author interviewed employees of the researched company.
In the present case, the profile of the participants is young, with a median age of less than 30 years old and with a good educational background, it being clear that the sample's organizational culture presents a different profile from the original study by Hofstede, which involved executives. On the other hand, the survey presents comparable multinational data, with samples that cannot be considered representative.
In this sense, it is suggested to adopt probabilistic sampling procedures in future works, in order to allow a test of the LTO scale with a greater variety of demographic configurations and contexts. That would serve to grant the research a generalization of results -which would reinforce and give validity to the theories related to the cause relations of cultural changes.
Other issues concern the sample size by country; however, it is observed that the original study includes a small number of participants: 50 men and 50 women (Chinese Culture Connection, 1987, pp. 146).
Hofstede's research at IBM, however, covers several countries, but the participation of less than 200 participants (Hofstede, 1980: 411).

FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
There are several ramifications of the implications regarding the results presented here. Several studies contest the validity of the Hofstede dimension model (Ailon, 2008;McSweeny, 2002;Schmitz et al., 2014).
That is not the intention of this article. Instead, there is a need to update the measures and approaches currently used to guide students and managers about what to expect when interacting with people from other cultural backgrounds.
The cultural dimensions of Hofstede represent an important reference for their field of knowledge, as they contribute significantly to the study of culture, providing a categorization system that is easy to understand and immediately applied to business decisions, being useful for recognizing people's cultural perspectives.
As for the possible causes of the change in the countries' order since the original Hofstede research was carried out, it is plausible to assume that the younger population of some countries (such as Colombia and Portugal) has come to give importance to long-term planning and tradition. On the other hand, some countries started to have a more immediate perspective and the search for self-gratification (cases of Brazil and Spain, for example).
In this sense, it is considered appropriate to investigate the reasons behind these changes in the studied countries' organization.
Nevertheless, the theoretical model has remained largely untouched since its proposition, thirty years ago. Cultures change over time, and we believe that the measurement of these dimensions must accompany them, in accordance with their development. With this, it is expected that the process of adjustment and evolution of this theoretical body begins.