The indebtedness of the Brazilian States: Verifying Your Situation Using Multivariate Analysis of Data

Abstract

    The debt of Brazilian States, originating from external crisis of the early 80's and up to now without a satisfactory solution, is a central question of the process of adjustment in the public sector. When it is studied the indebtedness it is possible to find countless indicators, with several forms of calculating them, where each author tries to demonstrate the indebtedness in an own way, in a way that your second justification better represents. In this context, the objective of this paper is to propose a logistics function that best represents the situation of indebtedness of the Brazilians States, considering a group of indicators found using factor analysis. To meet the goal were selected 41 indicators related to the financial part, calculated for the period 2000 to 2003 for all states. Then applied to technical statistical Factor Analysis, which separated the indicators on 7 factors, of which two (related to the indebtedness) were used in the Logistic Regression. Considering the results, it was concluded that the variables that best represent the situation of indebtedness of Brazilian States are providing the participation of net debt in GDP (VAR 01) and the use nominal of the current revenue (VAR 26). Thus, shows that the indebtedness can not be explained by a single indicator, we need a number of the gathered statistically.